Are you an expert?

Note: This is an update of an earlier post from a few years ago.

Today, it seems like people are becoming instant experts in any news that is happening. Don’t know anything about bridges, or firefighting or constitutional law. No worries, you can weigh in on social media and you might even gain a following. And if you become an influencer, you can make big bucks.

Today’s world is so complicated that we can’t be an expert in everything. We “know” about cars and plumbing and zippers, but we aren’t true experts in them. But because we know how to operate them, we think we know how they work.

But we don’t know as much as we think we do. Psychology researchers have named this phenomenon the “illusion of explanatory depth.” Their research shows that if you ask someone how much of an expert they are about an area, they will often say that they have expertise. But if you then ask questions about that knowledge, they will realize the limitations of their knowledge. This applies to the issues in our lives as well as to technology. There are very few true experts in climate change or racism or voter fraud or COVID-19 or vaccines. We’ve all read stuff and think we know, but most of us really aren’t experts.

This is important to recognize in yourself, as you approach trying to have a conversation to mend your fractured relationship. But it’s hard to see in yourself, because we humans aren’t in the habit of examining ourselves. We say humility is virtue, but we often don’t practice it.

Not even I am immune to this. I like thinking I am an expert in something. I just had a visit with a doctor who treated me like a normal patient. But, of course, I am not quite the normal patient because I have a background that taught me relevant information. I literally am somewhat of an expert, even though I don’t have an MD. When he didn’t give what I said any credence, I became incandescent with rage (internally.) However, I didn’t know enough to diagnose myself, so I needed his expertise. I had reached the end of my expertise.

How often do you talk about areas that are outside of your area of expertise or try to sound like you know more than you actually do?

There’s another point I want to make about experts, and that is about their limits. Just like the rest of us humans, experts have limits, even if they don’t recognize them. Philip Tetlock (author of the book, “Superforecasting”) has been studying experts and their predictions. He found that those people who are the most accurate in predicting the future are people who are willing to revise what they thought and continually reevaluate what they think. In other words, to keep examining what they know and what they don’t know. hat’s what science does, continually develop new hypotheses and keep testing them. That’s why science evolves. That is particularly important in areas of uncertainty, like our evolving pandemic.

But the influencers and pundits who get airtime aren’t humble and don’t reevaluate what they know. The media want people who are willing to make bold statements — they make for good ratings! And we buy into what people like that say because we mistake confidence for exactitude. That’s what I did when I bought into what an expert said about the origins of the coronavirus.

How does this apply this to how to have conversations to mend our fractured relationships?

First, realize that you probably aren’t an expert. Become aware of the limits of your knowledge. Be humble. Don’t just rely on conventional wisdom, what “everyone” knows. Remember that can be wrong. Be like Socrates, who was considered to be the wisest person in the world, is claimed to have said, “I know that I know nothing.”

I’ve been trying to practice not knowing. I practice saying “I don’t know” regularly.

One way you can avoid going outside your area of expertise is to do your research and become an expert. That means you have to devote a lot of time to one topic, so you probably aren’t going to be able to have conversations about a lot of issues, just one. For example, it might mean reading the studies that were published on the clinical trials of vaccines and not limiting what you read to what the media say. If you do that, you’re relying on others, so please check their credentials and find out how often they reevaluate what they believe. Don’t let their air of confidence fool you.

And if your goal is to mend a relationship, you need to still be humble in how you approach a conversation even if you become an expert. Don’t go into what a friend of mine calls “broadcast mode,” where you talk and don’t allow any interaction. Be interested in the reactions of the person you’re talking to.

There is more to learn from the research about the illusion of explanatory depth. After people who claim to be experts are asked questions to explore the range of their knowledge, the researchers discovered that people are more open to hearing from a true expert. They might listen to you, but they’re probably not open to hearing from someone who acts in an intimidating fashion. After all, you need to mend your relationship.

That means that the model that I have been exploring in this newsletter still applies. When you ask questions and listen, people are more able to hear what you have to say afterwards.