Are you an expert?

Today’s world is so complicated that we can’t be an expert in everything. We “know” about cars and plumbing and zippers, but we aren’t true experts in them. But because we know how to operate them, we think we know how they work.

But we don’t know as much as we think we do. Psychology researchers have named this phenomenon the “illusion of explanatory depth.” Their research shows that if you ask someone how much of an expert they are about an area, they will often say that they have expertise. But if you then ask questions about that knowledge, they will realize the limitations of their knowledge. This applies to the issues in our lives as well as to technology. There are very few true experts in climate change or racism or voter fraud or COVID-19 or vaccines. We’ve all read stuff and think we know, but most of us really aren’t experts.

This is important to recognize in yourself, as you approach trying to have a conversation to mend your fractured relationship. But it’s hard to see in yourself, because we humans aren’t in the habit of examining ourselves. We say humility is virtue, but we often don’t practice it.

Not even I am immune to this. Let me give you an example. In November 2020, I had a conversation with a neighbor who brought up the conspiracy theory that the coronavirus might have been made by China. I dismissed her idea because I’d read something by someone I believed had the background to be an expert. Well, now I’ve come to understand that I didn’t know what I was talking about. I’m not going to comment on the conspiracy portion of what she was saying, but I now understand the virus might have been man-made (which I have learned is called “gain of function” research), but it also might not have been. From what I’m now reading, it appears that no one will ever know the true answer to this question because China is blocking further investigation. The expert I had relied on, and the 18 other experts who signed a document stating a similar thing, were making a statement that went outside their literal area of expertise. And I certainly wasn’t an expert. My statements went outside my area of expertise.

How often do you talk about areas that are outside of your area of expertise or try to sound like you know more than you actually do?

There’s another point I want to make about experts, and that is about their limits. Just like the rest of us humans, experts have limits, even if they don’t recognize them. Philip Tetlock (author of the book, “Superforecasting”) has been studying experts and their predictions. He found that those people who are the most accurate in predicting the future are people who are willing to revise what they thought and continually reevaluate what they think. In other words, to keep examining what they know and what they don’t know. Those 18 experts who signed the document stating that COVID-19 wasn’t man-made who weren’t necessarily right. Hopefully, they’re now willing to recognize that. That’s what science does, continually develop new hypotheses and keep testing them. That’s why science evolves. That is particularly important in areas of uncertainty, like our evolving pandemic.

But the pundits who get airtime aren’t humble and don’t reevaluate what they know. The media want people who are willing to make bold statements — they make for good ratings! And we buy into what people like that say because we mistake confidence for exactitude. That’s what I did when I bought into what an expert said about the origins of the coronavirus.

Finally, I just had a conversation that demonstrated what it felt like to be on the receiving end of a conversation with an expert. The conversation left me feeling lousy afterwards. I felt dismissed, wasn’t listened to and was also maybe a little intimidated. I was tempted to ignore everything he said because of how I felt during the conversation. That relationship didn’t get mended!

How does this apply this to how to have conversations to mend our fractured relationships?

First, realize that you probably aren’t an expert. Become aware of the limits of your knowledge. Be humble. Don’t just rely on conventional wisdom, what “everyone” knows. Remember that can be wrong. Be like Socrates, who was considered to be the wisest person in the world, is claimed to have said, “I know that I know nothing.”

I’ve been trying to practice not knowing. I practice saying “I don’t know” regularly.

One way you can avoid going outside your area of expertise is to do your research and become an expert. That means you have to devote a lot of time to one topic, so you probably aren’t going to be able to have conversations about a lot of issues, just one. For example, it might mean reading that 4,000-page document on climate change and not limiting what you read to what the media say. If you do that, you’re relying on others, so please check their credentials and find out how often they reevaluate what they believe. Don’t let their air of confidence fool you.

And if your goal is to mend a relationship, you need to still be humble in how you approach a conversation even if you become an expert,. Don’t go into what a friend of mine calls “broadcast mode,” where you talk and don’t allow any interaction. Be interested in the reactions of the person you’re talking to.  

There is more to learn from the research about the illusion of explanatory depth. After people who claim to be experts are asked questions to explore the range of their knowledge, the researchers discovered that people are more open to hearing from a true expert. They might listen to you, but they’re probably not open to hearing from someone who acts in an intimidating fashion. After all, you need to mend your relationship.  

That means that the model that I have been exploring in this newsletter still applies. When you ask questions and listen, people are more able to hear what you have to say afterwards.

The model I have been using is: Ask, Listen, Affirm, Respond/Reframe

But I am going to revise it to:

Prepare, Ask, Listen, Affirm, Respond/Reframe

Prepare: Examine yourself and the limits of your knowledge. If you still want to have a conversation about an issue, consider doing your own research so that you’re an expert before your conversation. Doing research to become an expert isn’t required to have a productive conversation. But if you do, please realize the limits of that knowledge. And don’t act in an intimidating fashion. Become open to hearing what they have to say.

Ask: Ask questions. The questions can be general (as I talk about in the previous newsletter) or they can become specific, based on the issue and the research you’ve done. Don’t ask leading questions or questions designed to make people feel bad. They may actually backfire anyway because they’ll know what you’re doing.

Remember that the process of asking open-ended questions can help people realize the limits of what they do know; you don’t have to lead them. I find it interesting that the Socratic method is actually just that, asking questions, not assuming anything. If the wisest person in the ancient world can do that, I think I should be able to.

Listen: Once you’ve asked a question, please listen, as I talk about in this newsletter. There’s no sense in trying this method if you aren’t willing to hear what the person is saying. You never know what you’ll learn.

Affirm: We humans seem to have a tendency to focus on the negative. Positive statements are so lacking in this world. Become a person who affirms something positive. I have personally vowed to look for opportunities to affirm people, whenever I can. It lifts me and it lifts them. We need every bit of sunshine in this world.

Respond/Reframe: Now that you’ve prepared the ground, use what you know about the subject and the person to provide them with what you know. They will be more likely to hear you. But don’t overwhelm them with facts. Facts aren’t very persuasive. Instead talk about your emotions and look for stories (as I talk about here) and consider using words that mirror their context (as I talk about here.)

Please let me know if you try this and tell me how it went. I’d love to have some stories!